Oscar Drinking Game Picks- Henry J. Fromage

We moved! You can now find us at our own location, MovieBoozer.com | Movies Measured by the Pint! Movies Rated by Beers! We also have a new forum!

And here are Henry J. Fromage's Oscar Drinking Game predictions, in order of presentation and with a lot of probably misguided analysis... down with The King's Speech!

Best Art Direction

I think – Alice in Wonderland

I want – Inception

Apparently Tim Burton movies always win here, although The King’s Speech got an Art Director’s Guild award recently. Inception won the BAFTA over The King’s Speech and also an ADG award (there are multiple categories including science fiction and period films), so…

Best Cinematography

I think – True Grit

I want – Inception

True Grit’s Roger Deakins is one of the most overdue artists in the entire industry. If The King’s Speech will sweep, it could start here, although this is probably the award it deserves the least. In my book Wally Pfister’s work in Inception was the most impressive.

Best Supporting Actress

I think – Melissa Leo, The Fighter

I want – Amy Adams, The Fighter

Leo’s been here before and did pretty well in the precursor awards (all of the non-Oscar awards that have been given out over the last couple of months). People have been turning up their noses at her self-campaigning. Everybody seemed to like Steinfeld’s performance, but she’s beaten Leo precious few times in the category. Bonham Carter may ride The King’s Speech to an award.

Best Short Film (Animated)

I think – Day and Night

I want – Madagascar

Pixar dominated the category for a few years before falling short in the last few. Day and Night is stunning in 3-D, which the producers convinced the judges to screen it in. Pundits are getting behind The Lost Thing, but I preferred the dazzling array of styles and pacing of Madagascar, Carnet de Voyage.

Best Animated Feature Film

I think – Toy Story 3

I want – The Illusionist

Toy Story 3 is the biggest grossing, most beloved animated film of all time. This is a no-doubter.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I think – The Social Network

I want – Toy Story 3

Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay for The Social Network has been getting all of the much-deserved accolades since the beginning. It won at the Writer’s Guild Awards as well. It’d be very surprising if anyone else took this home.

Best Original Screenplay

I think – The King’s Speech

I want – Inception

If The King’s Speech somehow doesn’t capture this, it would show a shift away from its momentum towards Best Picture. The WGA picked Inception, but all of the momentum is going to the favorite.

Best Foreign Film

I think – Incendies

I want – Biutiful

This one is always interesting. You’d think picking the biggest name, which this year is Biutiful, would be fine, but that tactic has been defeated time and again. The only two I’ve seen are Dogtooth and Outside the Law, but the first is too strange and the second too conventional to come out with a win.

That leaves us with Golden Globe winner In a Better World and Incendies, the critical darling. Voters are never afraid of the lower-profile film here, and I think the reputation of Incendies as just being, well, better, will carry it through.

Best Supporting Actor

I think -- Christian Bale, The Fighter

I want –Jeremy Renner, The Town

Christian Bale’s been sweeping the precursors, but a King’s Speech sweep could get Geoffrey Rush a statue.

Best Original Score

I think – Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech

I want – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

The King’s Speech’s Alexandre Desplat still has yet with multiple nominations, but Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s score for The Social Network did the most amazing and unconventional job. Inception’s score by Hans Zimmer also has gotten a lot of love, but will probably be left behind.

Best Sound Editing

I think – Inception

I want – True Grit

These are the tech categories that Inception should dominate. True Grit is also in the conversation, however.

Best Sound Mixing

I think – The Social Network

I want – Inception

Inception will figure heavily here as well, although True Grit has been cited as a potential frontrunner as well. For my money, The Social Network has the most awesome examples of the craft, particularly the nightclub conversation between Jesse Eisenberg and Justin Timberlake’s characters.

Best Makeup

I think – The Wolfman

I want – The Way Back

The man in charge of The Wolfman’s makeup has won 8 times, and it is the most in-your-face nominee. Barney’s Version apparently does a masterful job with aging makeup, but I’m hoping The Way Back wins something.

Best Costume Design

I think – The King’s Speech

I want – True Grit

This one most likely comes down to Alice in Wonderland and The King’s Speech again. Burton’s films have never won here, and The King’s Speech won at the Costume Designer’s Guild, so I’ll have to go with them. Personally, I thought True Grit had some sweet work in this category.

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

I think – Strangers No More

I want – Sun Come Up

The only one that I found to be at all arresting was Strangers No More, and it’s also the only one I thought that offered all that much hope. Other important topics are covered, including environmental refugees, Chinese pollution, terrorism, and post traumatic stress disorder, but with varying degrees of effectiveness. Poster Girl does have the most emotion and could ride that to a win and The Warriors of Qiugang has been getting some notice as well.

Best Short Film (Live Action)

I think – God of Love

I want – Na Wewe

African-themed shorts often do well here, and Na Wewe is excellently done, doing a good job of building tension and offering commentary. The real crowd-pleaser and funniest of the bunch is God of Love.

Best Documentary

I think – Inside Job

I want – Restrepo

Inside Job has the most cachet and is topical. Critics liked Exit Through the Gift Shop best, but for my money Restrepo is one of the best documentaries I’ve ever seen.

Best Visual Effects

I think – Inception

I want – Alice in Wonderland

Inception has to have this locked down. I’ll hedge my bets with Alice in Wonderland’s pretty legit effects, but it’d be a surprise to see anyone but Inception called here.

Best Film Editing

I think – The Social Network

I want – The Black Swan

Here’s a battleground category between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. The former deserves this win, and should get it, but a win here is often a sneak peek at who’ll be getting the main prize, so The King’s Speech could certainly take it.

Best Original Song

I think – We Belong Together, Toy Story 3

I want – I See the Light, Tangled

Randy Newman does well and his song “We Belong Together” has strong emotional resonance with Toy Story 3’s story. “If I Rise” might be 127 Hours’ only chance to take home some gold and the Academy does like composer A.R. Rahman.

Best Director

I think – David Fincher, The Social Network

I want – Darren Aronofsky, The Black Swan

David Fincher is due and deserving and has swept every precursor up to the important Director’s Guild award, which The King’s Speech’s Tom Hooper took home in a huge upset. BAFTA (Britain’s Academy Awards) went back to Fincher, though, and if Hooper can’t win with home field advantage I’ve got to hope that sense has returned and Fincher will get it.

Best Actress

I think – Natalie Portman, Black Swan

I want – Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Natalie Portman has been sweeping the precursors, but Annette Bening had frontrunner status before The Black Swan released and is seen in a lot of circles as due. Still, it’d be surprising to see them go any direction but Bening. Kidman's quietly devastating performance didn't get the same accolades, but deserved to be in the conversation.

Best Actor

I think – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

I want – James Franco, 127 Hours

Colin Firth was anointed the favorite before any of these movies even released, and he hasn’t even been budged a bit since then.

Best Picture

I think – The King’s Speech

I want -- The Social Network

This is The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech. The Social Network had all of the critical and precursor awards support all the way up until last month. Then, first the Producer’s Guild, then crazy, crazy Directors Guild, and last the Screen Actors Guild all shifted the momentum to The King’s Speech, which was cemented as the frontrunner with some frankly undeserved Oscar nominations. Producer Harvey Weinstein is a miracle worker, getting Shakespeare in Love a head-scratching win over Saving Private Ryan. Maybe voters will follow the critical acclaim back to The Social Network, but they’ve so consistently made short-sighted decisions that I doubt it.

For the record, The Black Swan was my favorite movie of the year, but I’m picking The Social Network as my want to win out of protest.